Monday, September 28, 2009

The Fallacy of Age...or A Myth Is as Good as a Mile

I've had it up to here (use your imagination) with all the drivel about how old the Celtics are.  Maybe I'm just super-sensitive to ageist comments for some strange reason, but I always take pleasure in debunking them.

I've used Basketball Reference to calculate the average age of the starters and key bench players for each championship team of the past 20 years.  I've defined "starters" as the five players who started the most games for the team in question (according to Basketball Reference).  I've defined the "bench" as the other players who compiled significant minutes.  (There's almost always a noteworthy drop in minutes at some point in the roster list.)

• First, let's look at the current Celtics, with the Lakers as a point of comparison:

The five probable Celtics starters average 29.0 years of age vs. 28.8 for the Lakers.
The four most likely Celtics bench players average 29.3 years of age vs. 25.6 for the Lakers.

There's no significant difference among the starters for the two teams, despite all the bleating from the West Coast.  And I'll HAPPILY accept the experience difference among the bench players.  HAPPILY.  Experience counts for a lot when a player has to come into the game cold and under pressure.

• How about comparisons over the past 20 seasons?

The average age of starters for the last 20 championship teams has been 29.1.
The average age of key bench players for the the last 20 championship teams has been 28.9.

So this year's Celtics are almost precisely average when it comes to ages of recent championship teams.

• If the Celtics win the championship this season, they will be the 12th youngest group of starters and the 12th youngest bench to do so in the past 20 years.

• I know a team that won the 1969 championship with a starting five averaging age 31.6 and a bench averaging 29.3.  And they did it against a team that averaged 1.6 years younger among the starters and 1.8 years younger off the bench.  (I don't know how old the balloons were.)

• I personally think the Celtics have great balance, with six of their signed players over age 30 and eight under age 30.

As usual, what the West Coast antagonists miss in their desperation to unsettle us are both a grasp of the facts and a sense of logic.  I've presented some facts.  As for the logic, the age at which a player might become a detriment rather than an experiential advantage (especially on a deep team that will spread the minutes) is beyond that of every single player on the Celtics roster.  Yes, players can become more susceptible to injury with the passage of time; but that's probably little comfort to Andrew Bynum (and Tony Allen, for that matter).  More experienced players know how to pace and take care of themselves; and the realization that they are not indestructible is no longer a new awakening for them.

Experienced players adapt more quickly to new situations  Getting Sheed rather than some very young counterpart means the Celtics were trading longevity for more rapid integration.  Experienced players have a "feel" for the game that enables them to lead, mentor and enable, without having to focus primaily on fitting in.  I expect the presence of Sheed and Daniels will help make guys like Baby, Eddie, and maybe even Tony much better players; and the same could hold true for one or two of the really young guys, if and when they get a chance to play.

Any progress of young players can be very gradual (as we learned several years ago).  Among more experienced players, the payoff is usually much more expedited and substantial.

I hate to fall back on my mantra, but the neophyte "pundits" always make the mistake of evaluating the worth of a player in a superficial vacuum.  What he means to the TEAM is far more important than his age or his individual stats.  And what the experienced Celtics players collectively represent is a giant step in the direction of major contention.

Please let me know if you have any ideas for subjects for us to discuss, along with the games of course.

Best regards,

Sam

27 comments:

David14 said...

Sam, in my opinion, age is discussed far too often these days by the Celtic “haters”. It's a convenient "weapon" since there are few holes on this year's team if KG is healthy. Although, I believe we need a back up center in order to preserve Perk's shoulders. It does get a little "old", no pun intended, when “age” insults are consistently thrown at the Celtics.
Perhaps the West Coastees are forgetting the "old" Dodgers carried that created the positive image and success for the glory of the Dodgers. Can it possible that they forgot that Koufax, Drysdale, Wills, Padres, Manny Mota, Garvey, Cey, Roseboro, Sutton, Gibson where all “old” guys when they greatly contributed to the Dodger’s success. Much of their own personal glory came from their great play at the tail end of their careers. The Los Angeles folks did not discuss “age” issues when that "old" skyhook focused center and his "old" friend Magic created the ShowTime success in the 80's. Without "old" Robert Horry, the Lakers are still attempting to win championship number 5 and 6. Injuries, health, and work ethic are far more important that just "age". Hate the comparison; however, perhaps the West Coast folks may want to look at the core of the current Yankees that are trying to win it all this year. Without Johnny I'll never play for the Yankees Damon, Mariano, Jeter, Arod, and Pettitte, all "old" guys in comparison to the average age of MLB teams, the Yankees would be going fishing instead of the playoffs in a few weeks. I suspect the Yankees fans are very happy to have those "old" guys.
If “old” and end of career efforts have become the criteria in order to determine who will be winning championships, I suspect we should be pretty confident. That is if we think about “old” player contributions at the tail end from; such as; Cousy, Sam, Russ, Satch, Hondo, DJ, Larry, Kevin, Nellie, Em, Nate, Jo Jo, PJ Brown, Bailey, Willie Nauls, Walton, Silas, Cowens, and the other players who played a key role in every single championship. Hey, perhaps we can even mention 1969 again. Was there any other player besides Russ who won a championship his last year while playing 48 minutes in the last game of the finals!!! Not bad for an “old guy”. How many “younger” guys were sitting on the Laker bench waiting for their chance to grab a free balloon?? Oh well, as one Celtic poster recently stated; “why don’t we let the players play the season this year before we declare winners and losers”.
As far as new subjects, I sure would be interested in hearing from the Celtics fans if there are there any one or two “most memorable Celtic plays” that stands out in their mind. We all know about Hondo’s and Larry’s steal, however how about the ones that no one talks about. To me, one of the most memorable plays that still haunt me is the call, or "non call" on the Kareem missed free throw at the end of Game 4 in Boston in the 1987 finals. We consistently hear and see Magic's last second skyhook which negated Larry’s own improbable clutch shot that put the Celtics ahead with just seconds to play. What we don't hear about, or see, is Mychael Thompson’s over the back “non called” foul on Kevin McHale and/or, at minimum, the reply showing Thompson’s hand reaching around Kevin to knock the ball out of bounds. Had they called that play correctly, instead of the Lakers being up 3 to 1 the series would have been tied at 2 with Game 5 to be played in Boston. Assuming the C’s win that game, the series goes back to LA with the Celtics needing only a split to repeat. Oh well, the play, just like Cousy dribbling the ball all over the place in running out the clock in other finals with the Lakers, the Thompson over the back “non call” remains a play that I continually rerun in my own mind. I am open to folks convincing me that my heart blinded my eyes; however my nightmares are pretty clear!!!!

Unknown said...

I think the point about "rapid integration" is an undervalued asset. QUICKER bang-for-the-buck. With young players, you're in the dilemma of "do I give them minutes so they can develop or do I put in my solid, dependable players so we can win?"

Sam said...

David,

You are an encyclopedia on why age is good. I love it! And I believe Russ played not only every minute of that game seven but every minute of that SERIES. Havlicek and West played all 48 of that Game 7 too. Endurance in a speed game was a staple in those days.

Great idea about the greatest plays.

I'd limit mine to the less publicized ones (which would recognize the Havlicek and Bird steals but would make them too obvious to include in this exercise).

#1 would be Russ's full-court dash to block Jack Coleman's shot (Coleman had a half-court head-start) and ultimately win the Celtics' first title.

#2 would be Sam Jone's slip slidin' away jumper to beat the Lakers by 1 at the buzzer to tie the 1969 final series at 2-2 instead of heading to L.A. down 3-1.

#3 would be Larry leaping out-of-bounds to grab a rebound, and—while in the air—switching the ball to his left hand and flipping in an underhand shot from about 10 feet out.

#4 would be a "two-fer": Havlicek's falling, line-drive leaner from about 10 feet to tie the game followed a game second later by Gar Heard's miracle shot in the triple-overtime Phoenix game.

#5 would be The Cooz, culminating a personal 5-point flurry in the final 13 seconds (without the benefit of the three-point field goal) with a long jumper at the buzzer to send a 1953 playoff game against Syracuse into the fourth overtime. (The Celts won in the 4th overtime, with Cousy scoring 50 including a current-record 30 of 32 at the line.)

I hope others will respond to your question on the most memorable plays.

Sam

Rosalie said...

I would have to say my most favorite play was that of Russell running full
court to block that shot! Next in line for me is the John Havlicek leaner against Phoenix. That was probably one of the greatest games I ever saw. I took my Mom and Dad to that game, we sat in the second balcony, right across from the basket where Havlicek made his shot. I thought I was going to die that night!! The last one is not a play, but a game, the l969 win over LA. ALL THOSE BALLOONS! What a joy! Bird's shot from behind the basket is a memory of all time also. The story goes on and on, there have been so many wonderful games and plays that I sat through at the Garden that sent shivers up and down my spine! It is a great feeling to say that I have been a Celtic fan for so long. Shows my age, I guess, but the memories are great.

Sam said...

Rosalie, the last one could be called a play. On the homeward plane, Johnny Most called it the play where "Russell broke their balloons."

Keep 'em coming folks. I bet there are younger posters who have memories of great plays from 2007-08. Remember the shot KG made while falling backward on the floor? Or a certain drive Ray made by a Vuji statue?

Sam

Sam

beat said...

Being my favorite celt is Hondo always loved that offensive rebound putback over a flat footed Jabbar in late in game 6 (Jabbar won that with the hook over Finkle.

Rather than plays per se I just remember glimpses and moments like when Cowens knocks the ball away from Oscar and dives and slides 10-15 feet while trying to grab the ball.

Bird launching the "money" ball then holding up his bent finger in the first 3 point shoot out for the win.......in his warm up top to boot.

McHale scoring 55 for the all time single game high and correctly predicting Bird would eclipse it in a few games.....Bird gets 60 10 days later.

The tragedies....I was in Philadelphis when I heard about Bias. At work when I heard about Reggie.

Bird toying with Jack Sikma with a between his (Sikma) legs pass.

Don Nelson's shot put style free throws.....Hondo's 2 layups to end the warm ups prior to every game.

Don Chaney with arms so long he scraped his knuckles when he walked.

Red comming out of the stands and ripping his suit.

Bird's comeback from a concusion against Indy.

Cowens plowing over the flopper Mike Newlin then handing the ball to the ref and saying something like "Now thats a foul"

Russ's cackle

Ainge calling McHale the black hole.

Rainbows by the Chief.

Johnny Most calling the game that I was never at but could see.

(only later to learn the game he was calling was not always the game I was seeing, or the others that were actually there.

Getting to spend a few moments talking to Johnny in Buffalo before a Braves game.

Driving around in my car trying to get reception on WBZ 103 as it was a playoff game. Holy intervention as I was able to get it behind our little country church.

The loss of Red.

131-92

Hondo bringing out the trophy for #18.

I'm sure if given a few more minutes I'd come up with more.

beat

Sam said...

Beat, can you elaborate about Red tearing his suit? I don't recall that one.

Thanks

Sam

David14 said...

I have to quickly add; it's okay to date ourselves Rosalie, just more great Celtic memories to replay in our minds. Although, fairly young, I'll never forget the freeze in time between Selvy's shot and Russ jumping three feet about the rim to keep the rebound away from Elgin Baylor in 1962!!!

On a lighter note, who can ever forget Larry's full court run to hit the "buzzer beating" three pointer in Dallas while proving to the world that he can actually run faster when running backwards in a celebration mode.

Sam said...

Good one.

beat said...

Sam

Sorry I can't find any conformation of the "ripped suit" but what I recall was red sitting in his seat next to the then owner (Levin?) this had to be in the late 80's and there was a fracas on the floor. Red actually left his seat and went on the floor and from what I recall the sleve of his jacket got ripped from when it fastens to the shoulder. Perhaps it's just my imagination.

As to the shot David mentions, again I'm not 100% sure but the Dallas last second shot was actually made twice. KC had called a time out from the other end of the floor and several players on the floor were unaware of it. And Bird proceeded to make a long trey. And after the time out he did it again.

beat

David14 said...

Beat, you can see the shot I was referring to on a "summary of Larry's clutch shots on "You Tube". Here's is the site;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3lAuohZvnE

The clips cover many of Larry's shots, but the one I was referring to is shown at about 4:21 into the clip. National TV picked up Larry running backwards right after the shot while "spinning his hands". This clip shows some of the hand spinning and running. The NBA uses the full shot in their marketing shots.

The clip is a great reminder of how great Larry's focus had become when shooting under pressure.

So many great Celtic memories. Hope 2009/2010. Adds more memorie to our memory banks.

David14 said...

Beat/Sam,

The incident Beat referred to in the 80's was;

"Oct. 16, 1983: Auerbach leaves his seat in the stands and joins in a fight on the floor between Bird and Phiadelphia's Marc Iavaroni."

Although, as "very young" kid, Red really made his impression on me with this "Red Heavy Weight" story from the 1956 to 1957 season!!

"In game two the Celtics evened the series by limiting Pettit to just 11 points in a 119-99 win. The series moved to St. Louis for game three. Before the game started, Auerbach complained to the officials that the rims were low; Auerbach's complaint offended Hawks owner Ben Kerner, who accused Auerbach of trying to embarrass the home team. An argument ensued, and Auerbach punched Kerner in the mouth."

David

beat said...

David

Thanks for the assist. I thought the Red fight was a bit later in Birds career. Perhaps he did it again later in the 80's he was one fiesty dude!

As to the highlights of Bird's last second shots or incredible ones that are not last second, I've watched them many times over.

Perhaps it wasn't the Dallas game but there was one where the C's inbounded the ball trailing with just seocnds left and Bird nailed the winner only to find out that behind the play KC had called time out.

So after the time out he did it again.

beat/warren

David14 said...

Beat, yes they definitely had to watch Red closely. You never knew when Red would take things into his own hands. He never hid behind a typewriter or keyboard like we find with some "people" that are obsessed with Celtic “hating”. Red proudly spoke his piece, and he did so without hiding behind anything. I’m pretty sure I remember the game you are talking about with Larry’s two “clutch” game ending shots. I’ll do some thinking.

beat said...

David

What is a pusstule?

Something Kobe uses in denver perhaps.

I've emailed Sam about the mental giant on the loose. Oh well he/she probably doesn't even realize he's making bucks for Sam by posting.

beat

Sam said...

Don't worry Beat. I made sure the "Puss" hit was recorded before deleting it. Ka-ching ka-ching, ka-ching.

Sam

David14 said...

Beat, I think the definition is "a coward wearing purple and gold cheap "knock offs" that hide behind keyboards" and firescreens in order to gain a cheap laugh.

Others enjoy life by playing sports, going to plays, going to movies, spending time with friends, etc. Not an option for anti-social Internet malcontents whose low self esteem causes them to be friendless.

beat said...

Sam

Thanks for the cleasing.

David

The thing I enjoy most is spending time with my son who is now a young man. This evening we're doing something a bit different. One of his former close friends (different interests have separated them a bit) has a cross country race at 5 PM against the other areas best team. He too is only a freshman. I'm picking up his dad, who has done 2 tours in Iraq/Afghaistan(sp) he's recieved word not long ago he has to go back. I can't imagine having to leave your family and miss things liek these. I don't think I could do it and physically now I couldn't.

Hopefully we can offer a little support for him here when he has to go.

beat

Sam said...

The blog has now been modified so that only "registered" people can use it (not "anonymous" people). It may require an extra sign-in step whenever you want to make a comment, but I hope it will be worth it.

If this individual provides the information required to sign in and then continues trying to taunt, that's when it could get really interesting for him. I won't go into detail but will let it be a surprise.

Sam

David14 said...

Beat (Warren), you are teaching your son some great values. Given where our country has found itself, and what we face, I'm hoping we can weed out the social misfits from those who add value to our society. Hopefully, Marcus will see the value of being a good citizen and using your teachings in a productive manner. He'll enjoy the rewards.
I do a great deal of travel and fully understand what you are saying. One of the hardest things to do is getting ready to leave the family and taking the first step out the door. Although, I work with international groups and spend time oversees, I can't imagine the feeling when the first step out the door heads to a battle or war where one may never see his/her family again. They are without question, American heroes.

MARCUS- Please follow your Dad’s advice and guidance. Sometime later in life you will find that the advice and guidance will make a huge difference in your success. Particularly, with the economic challenges your generation will face. I’m so glad that I listened to my parents and mentors!!! Although, I can no longer tell my Dad and Mom that they were SO RIGHT, they were SO RIGHT.

Sam- Thanks for taking care of the insect problem. I think it would help convince others they can post on your site in a comfortable manner. We all can go over to Boston.com if we want to risk insects and rodents. I hope the worm that posted “retirement homes” doesn’t soon lose parents or older siblings. As much as I want to rid ourselves of these guys/girls, we all learn respect for someone older than us which is sometimes learned in a very painful way. We need reform in this country and it should include a focus on ridding ourselves of internet predators. Either that or maybe these insects will decide to show some courage and step out of their hole to stand behind their cowardly acts.

David

Sam said...

David,

I appreciate your idea about asking for people's most memorable plays. It was very helpful.

I'm quite certain we're all familiar with that "worm." Think about a cocktail popular with James Bond: shaken, not stirred.

Sam

David14 said...

Sam, my pleasure about the suggestion. Perhaps as things go forward with the site, the posters can offer their favorite 2009/2010 memories, and then their 5 top all time memories. You can think about coming up with the top 5 or 10 and taking a vote if enough people participate. It would be interesting!!

As far as the worm, as disappointing as that would be, I think you may be right.

Rosalie said...

Alright, I will go to the Bird era, what about Bird's shootout with Dominique, the day McHale scored over fifty and Bird came back the next game to best him. Danny getting his finger bitten, DJ & Bird teaming together to steal the ball and score to beat Detroit. Maxwell's "jump on my back" statement when he helped carry the team to victory in l984, That great l986 team, with Bill Walton as a backup to Parrish, all the great passes he made. That may be my favorite all time team. They were something else. So.....I do go back, but I also have many, many memories leading right up to the present. I have been thrilled by this team, as many already know, I love Ray Allen's game, have waited for years for him to become a Celtic, and, after much chagrin at loosing Al, have come to love KG even more. I go back, but I still live in the present!

David14 said...

Rosalie, you nailed some great 80's memories. Who can ever forget DJ motioning for Larry to give him a hug after "Bird steals the ball" against Detroit. I also agree that the 2009/2010 team can be very exciting. The young guys may push the veterans to a higher level in trying to get playing time, and the vets are going to have a lot of fun making stars out of the younger guys in pushing them during practices. It would be hilarious if we could put a microphone on Sheed, Paul, and KG during the practices!!!

If its the Celtics' year for good health, the blank banner Doc put up at the practice site may just get a quick number 18 printed on it. Should be great fun.

Sam said...

Boy, was there anyone who had the personal duels that Larry had? Magic? Dominique? Chuck Person? The three-pointer contest? The double game-winner described by Beat? Larry just seemed to thrive on challenges. I wonder if his small-town upbringing lowered his susceptibility to pressure.

Sam

David14 said...

Sam, I may be wrong, but I think a great deal of Larry "inner strength" and focus came from having to deal with so many of life's tests so early in life. He appeared to have test after test. Including dealing with what occurred with his Dad. For sure Larry had that "in your face" attitude where he appeared driven to prove the world that he can be the best!! Basketball became his escape and then his "life".

Sam said...

David,

Could well be. Larry's really an anigma in many ways...and obviously much more complex than a basic country boy.

Sam