Wednesday, September 30, 2009

After Preseason Day One: 9/29/09

After the first day of official action at training camp, here's a combination of excerpts from news reports and a few of my own thoughts for your consideration and response:

• KG participated in about three-quarters of the drills the first day and was pretty tired afterwards.  He seemed upbeat and went full-speed when he was in there, and he vigorously resisted when Doc took him out.

• Doc revealed that every player would miss an exhibition game or two and that KG's time would probably be limited throughout the exhibition season.  Strictly as a precaution.  I believe this is a luxury Doc has because of the depth of the team.

• Doc divided the team into three units for the first practice, and he spoke as though the two-unit system would be a given this season.  "I want the second unit to have their own identity," he said.  He indicated that the play of the second unit stuck out and that he's looking to that group to increase the lead when they're in games.  And KG made a point of mentioning that playing against the second unit was like playing against many starting teams.  Shades of the 60s.  The second unit beat the first unit a couple of times, as the starters may have been a bit challenged to readjust to having KG back.

• Doc was also "pleased with how little the second unit needed to be corrected."  He said, "Last year we sent half our practices starting and stopping and we had very few of those with the second unit (today), and that's huge for us."  And apparently the IQ of the second unit is considered way up there!

• It's looking like the starting unit will contain no surprises: Perk, KG, Pierce, Ray, Rondo.  With KG probably playing short minutes, at least early in the season, Baby will get minutes with the starters.

• The second unit (in the absence of Tony Allen, who did a few drills off to the side but did not participate in the practice) consisted of Sheed, Williams, Scal, Daniels and Eddie.

• When Baby wasn't filling in for KG, he usually spelled Williams (sometimes Scal) on the second team.  It's beginning to look as though, in the absence of Tony Allen, Scal may be one option to sub for Pierce while Daniels plays guard.  It won't shock me if another option is for Rondo to see minutes with the bench, as they go small with Eddie at SG and Daniels at SF.  It's not difficult to envision two options:

Against larger, slower benches: Sheed, Baby, Scal, Daniels, Eddie

Against smaller, faster benches: Sheed, Baby, Daniels, Eddie, Rondo

• Doc said Daniels and Eddie "have already figured out the rhythm of whoever has the ball, that's the point guard in our offense."  So it looks a bit like PG by committee for the second unit.

• On most teams (including the Lakers), the starters tend to be the game-changers and the bench represents the placeholders.  When the Celtics play the "elite" opponents, the situation could be reversed.  It could be that starters will be more likely to maintain pace with their enemy counterparts while the Celtics bench decisively outplays the opposition bench.

• The third team consisted of Williams, Sweetney, Walker, Giddens and Hudson.

• For those (including myself) who have been expecting that the addition of Daniels might lead to more fast-breaking, it's noteworthy that KG made the following comment about him: "He has that herky-jerky slow game like Paul Pierce."  The comment was made enthusiastically as an indication of how much 'Quis will help the bench.  But maybe we need to temper expectations about an upgraded transition game until we see some game action.

Best regards,

Sam

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Blog Update

Just a quick note to thank everyone for your support on this blog.  While the posting and comments so far has been limited to nine quality people and one now-banned anonymous taunter, the blog has attracted 1,200 "views" so far.  So people are looking in; and hopefully, increasing numbers will be motivated to post as the teams springs into action.

And today, the blog experienced its first click on an ad.  Whoa, the earnings just soared!  With a little luck, my total "take" may soon be a buck.  LOL.

Many thanks, and any suggestions for improvement will be appreciated.  If anyone wants to communicate with me without going on the blog, just send an email to: SlipSamCelt@aol.com.  I'd love to find some ways to encourage some of those "viewers, non-commenters" to participate in the discussions.

Sam

Preseason: Early Insights 9/29/09

Finally!  Finally!  Preseason is upon us!  This is the time when Celtics fans hungrily devour early tidbits from training camp, do some reading between the lines, and err in the direction of optimism when possible.  Let's look at a few tidbits, mixed with a little conjecture that I hope will stimulate some conversation.

• KG has participated in a 5-on-5 pickup game.  It sounds as though they nearly had to pick him up afterwards, but he fought through the rust and competed.  When asked about his program, Kevin joins Danny and Doc in sounding cautious...and that's not a word we're used to associating with him.  But it's a smart word...and it also reflects a growing confidence in the team's depth...a feeling that seems to be pervading everyone in camp.

• Sheed and Perk, never friends when they were opponents, have both gone out of the way to praise one another.  Sheed's personal jury is still out on Perk's role with the team, but Sheed says, "Hanging out with him, and the locker room talk, "Perk's cool."  Perk's more effusive about Sheed's playing abilities: "I like playing with Rasheed.  Great passer.  Obviously we know he can shoot.  He's got great post moves.  Great defender...and he's a great guy in the locker room."  (Will they bond and become known as the "Tech Tandem?"  Stay tuned.)

• Nice article on Scal by Jeff Clark (who?).  He details how Scal was essentially a misfit for his first few years with the team.  He was acquired to be a role player, not a go-to player, and to add experience and maturity to the team.  But, as Clark says, "Whatever maturity he brought to the locker room was far outweighed by the strong personalities on that team."  Then, "on a team of early-twenty somethings, Scalabrine was once again a bad fit."  As I've maintained for a long time, Clark suggests Scal is meant to make good teams better, and the Celtics finally became good enough for him to do exactly that as both a backup role player and an emergency starter.

• Not to belabor the Scal thing, because he won't be part of the team's core, but Clark rather eloquently summarizes the essence of this guy: "Do you want him to be a valuable backup forward?  He can back up Pierce and also give us added depth at power forward.  Do you want him to step aside and give more time to Bill Walker?  Scal will happily tutor the young lad and wave a towel on the bench.  Do you want to use his expiring contract to pick up a player at the trade deadline?  Pair him with Tony Allen and you can swipe a $7M player away from a team hemorrhaging money (call it the Redhead Bailout Plan)...He's also the kind of guy I'd like to see get into coaching when his career is over."  (Sam's comment: I've been saying that for two years.)

• They finally signed Hudson.  (Wasn't tomorrow some sort of deadline for that?)  That would seem to suggest they're somewhat reassured about (1) covering the PG situation and (2) the lack of need for another Perk backup or insurance for KG.  (Or could it be precursor to a 2-for-1 trade?)  They may also be liking the glimmers they're seeing from Hudson in the pickup games.  This guy continues to impress me with his perspectives during interviews.  He says, "Everybody has impressed me with how hard they compete.  When we play pickup, we sometimes have one of our managers play because we don't have enough.  Even then, guys are going after the manager like he's Paul or Ray or KG.  There's no such thing as lackadaisical with these guys."  And he continues, "I'm full of confidence, but sometimes I've been too passive.  Playing with the Big Three and all these other guys you know you can just give them the ball and get out of the way, and something good will probably happen.  But you have to stay aggressive, you have to make sure the defense plays you to make it easier for everybody else.  And the guys all tell me when I'm too passive, when I should take a shot or make a play rather than just swing the ball."  I love those statements.  They reflect precisely the antithesis of what I saw in Pruitt, who always just swung the ball and virtually never advanced it.  Hudson could easily wind up challenging Rondo as my favorite player; despite the fact that he's totally unproven.  I just like everything about him...except a first name that somehow doesn't fit the impression of aggressiveness.  This guy seriously needs a nickname!

• Just now comes the word (from Greg Dickerson) that Tony Allen may not be ready for preseason because he's still rehabbing from June 3rd surgery on a torn ankle tendon.  This news could have more implications than a lot of people think.  (1) I felt Tony was a legitimate contender for the backup SG spot, with the smaller Eddie House being a perimeter-shooting PG and "'Quis" (as KG calls him) functioning as a point forward; unconventional but interesting.  (2) But, in order for this possibility to have a chance of coming to fruition, I felt it was imperative for some exploration of its efficacy to take place right from the start of training camp...not during the regular season, when the team will hopefully be well along in solidifying its combinations and rotations.

• And, on the lighter side, Glen Davis has been annointed by himself and his mates as the best dancer on the team.  (KG claims to be second-best.)  I don't know exactly how they judge such things, but apparently there are some spontaneous breakouts in the training room (which must be dominated by constant music).  The worst dancers?  Apparently Pierce, Ray and Scal.  I don't care so much about the rankings, but it's great news that this team is already loose and bonding...before the exhibition season has even begun.  It's so different from two years ago, when they were getting acquainted in Rome.  I mean, even Lester Hudson weighed in on the "dancing controversy" with his support of Baby.

Best regards,

Sam

Monday, September 28, 2009

The Fallacy of Age...or A Myth Is as Good as a Mile

I've had it up to here (use your imagination) with all the drivel about how old the Celtics are.  Maybe I'm just super-sensitive to ageist comments for some strange reason, but I always take pleasure in debunking them.

I've used Basketball Reference to calculate the average age of the starters and key bench players for each championship team of the past 20 years.  I've defined "starters" as the five players who started the most games for the team in question (according to Basketball Reference).  I've defined the "bench" as the other players who compiled significant minutes.  (There's almost always a noteworthy drop in minutes at some point in the roster list.)

• First, let's look at the current Celtics, with the Lakers as a point of comparison:

The five probable Celtics starters average 29.0 years of age vs. 28.8 for the Lakers.
The four most likely Celtics bench players average 29.3 years of age vs. 25.6 for the Lakers.

There's no significant difference among the starters for the two teams, despite all the bleating from the West Coast.  And I'll HAPPILY accept the experience difference among the bench players.  HAPPILY.  Experience counts for a lot when a player has to come into the game cold and under pressure.

• How about comparisons over the past 20 seasons?

The average age of starters for the last 20 championship teams has been 29.1.
The average age of key bench players for the the last 20 championship teams has been 28.9.

So this year's Celtics are almost precisely average when it comes to ages of recent championship teams.

• If the Celtics win the championship this season, they will be the 12th youngest group of starters and the 12th youngest bench to do so in the past 20 years.

• I know a team that won the 1969 championship with a starting five averaging age 31.6 and a bench averaging 29.3.  And they did it against a team that averaged 1.6 years younger among the starters and 1.8 years younger off the bench.  (I don't know how old the balloons were.)

• I personally think the Celtics have great balance, with six of their signed players over age 30 and eight under age 30.

As usual, what the West Coast antagonists miss in their desperation to unsettle us are both a grasp of the facts and a sense of logic.  I've presented some facts.  As for the logic, the age at which a player might become a detriment rather than an experiential advantage (especially on a deep team that will spread the minutes) is beyond that of every single player on the Celtics roster.  Yes, players can become more susceptible to injury with the passage of time; but that's probably little comfort to Andrew Bynum (and Tony Allen, for that matter).  More experienced players know how to pace and take care of themselves; and the realization that they are not indestructible is no longer a new awakening for them.

Experienced players adapt more quickly to new situations  Getting Sheed rather than some very young counterpart means the Celtics were trading longevity for more rapid integration.  Experienced players have a "feel" for the game that enables them to lead, mentor and enable, without having to focus primaily on fitting in.  I expect the presence of Sheed and Daniels will help make guys like Baby, Eddie, and maybe even Tony much better players; and the same could hold true for one or two of the really young guys, if and when they get a chance to play.

Any progress of young players can be very gradual (as we learned several years ago).  Among more experienced players, the payoff is usually much more expedited and substantial.

I hate to fall back on my mantra, but the neophyte "pundits" always make the mistake of evaluating the worth of a player in a superficial vacuum.  What he means to the TEAM is far more important than his age or his individual stats.  And what the experienced Celtics players collectively represent is a giant step in the direction of major contention.

Please let me know if you have any ideas for subjects for us to discuss, along with the games of course.

Best regards,

Sam

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Thanksgiving Should Come Early this Year

Rosalie mentioned the unrest some people have about the possibility that KG's injury could be severe enough so that he'll never be able to regain enough of his form to lead the Celtics to another championship.  It follows that those people would then ask, "Was it worth it to give up all those promising prospects for Ray and KG just for a one-and-done championship?"

Obviously, all good Celtics fans fervently wish KG the best and hope against hope that, sooner rather than later, he'll be back to full strength (or close enough to help propel the team to championship #18).  And, with only a few days to go before we'll probably have more definitive answers about his situation, I almost hate to write about this topic for fear of jinxing him.

But, just for the heck of it, what if the worst happens?  Let's not talk about injuries (the "jinx" factor); but let's assume that KG were suddenly called away to serve permanently as a missionary in the Australian Outback.  (Forget the implications about retirement and salary cap room, etc.; it's my fantasy.)  For one reason or another, assume he's now gone.  Following are my Top Ten reasons for not panicking and for giving thanks that I'm a Celtics fan at this time:

1. We'd still be left with a contender.  In fact, without adding a player, we'd still have 11 veterans available for 12 active roster slots (Perk, Paul, Rondo, Ray, Baby, Sheed, Eddie, Daniels, Williams, Tony, Scal), with at least two young guys (Giddens and Walker) busting their guts to get on that list and possibly another one (Hudson) knocking on the door.

2. Power forward is all of a sudden one of the deepest positions on the team, and Sheed, Baby, Williams and Scal would still be available to meet a need that Baby and Scal alone filled serviceably in last season's playoffs.

3. By not yet addressing the 15th roster spot, Danny has left himself the option of acquiring yet another player at the veteran's minimum.  He could be a PG, but he could also be a big man if needed—obviously not a great one, but at least another body in case of foul trouble, etc.  In fact, it could KG's unresolved situation, as much as PG questions, that has resulted in Danny's inaction to date.

4. Among Sheed, Baby, Williams, Scal, and possibly another guy, not one of them will provide the total package of ingredients represented by KG.  But I'm not convinced that a team this deep and versatile will require as many of those ingredients from one man as the Celtics needed in the past.

5. Doc has proven to be pretty good at adapting the team's style of play to the capabilities of his roster...with the success of his rag tag lineups in the playoffs being an especially good indication.  In the absence of KG, Doc and Thibs would be put to the "adaptation test."  But it could just be that Baby and/or Williams (both of whom I believe face challenges in discovering their optimal roles with this season's Celts) will prove to be difference-makers in one area or another of the game.  And one area of difference-making is all that's required of role players like them.  (More to come on that topic in another post.)

6. I don't know about anyone else, but I wouldn't have traded the chance to be at the 2008 Rolling Rally for anything.  That championship came out of left field, and I will forever be grateful for it.

7. I haven't seen anything from all those prospects who left Boston in the Ray and KG trades that would suggest the Celtics would be anywhere near the same shape with them on board rather than #20 and $5.  Guys like Al Jefferson and Gomes are growing into very dependable NBA players, but I'm not sensing that they exert the kinds of leadership and "NBA savoire faire" exhibited by the Three Amigos.

8. Think of the non-championship benefits that have accrued as a result of the trade.  The Celtics have returned to respectability.  They have become an attractive destination for valuable additions to the team.  Younger players such as Perk and Rondo have had an opportunity to mature within the "womb" of an experienced core.  Paul Pierce not only hung around but also was re-energized to the point of being able to put the Celts on his back when required.

9. Aside from the impact of Ray and KG on the other players and the "product" on the court, Doc, Danny and ownership have formed a highly competent hierarchy funded on mutual respect, trust and enthusiasm.  And the fan base has solidified and strengthened through the advent of "new blood."

10. Even if one forgets the Russell Years (which I know the fans of a certain Left Coast team, in their infinite and unending embarrassment, would dearly love to do), the Celtics have won 15% of all available championships from 1970 onward.  They're not the leaders in that respect, but they're not the Chicago Cubs in terms of championship hiatus either.  Heck, with 30 teams in the league, the purely mathematical "share" of championships should be 3% per team.  So, even adjusting for the varying numbers of team in the league over the years, we Celtics fans have probably enjoyed upwards of five times as much championship fun as should theoretically be our "share."  And, even in the 23 years since 1986, the Celtics have won 4% of the available championships.  That's better than zero, and it's also better than 80% of the teams in the league have accomplished over that span.

So I hope for the most favorable possible outcome regarding KG's injury.  Presumably he'll defer any Australian missionary work until he retires from the NBA due to old age.  But, come what may, I'm very grateful to be a Celtics fan, and I'm prepared to support them through thick and thin...no matter what.

In fact, I'm so grateful that, just yesterday, I went out for a bite of pre-Thanksgiving turkey.  But the sucker darted under some brush before I could catch it.  Bah-da-bing!

Best regards,

Sam

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Perspectives on Management Philosophies

I am aware that some people have had difficulties in responding with their own comments.  A few have been able to do so, but the appearance of their comments on the site has been a bit of a struggle.  Please be aware that I'm making every effort to obtain a detailed procedure for you to make comments that will be displayed; and thanks for your indulgence.  At least I've discovered that the way for people to access comments made by all of you is (1) at the end of each of my posts, it tells you how many comments there are; (2) if there is at least one comment, just click on the word "link" to reveal all the comments under that post (including my responses to comments).

While I'm trying to figure out the easiest way for you to make a comment on the blog, the makeup of the blog seems to make it easier for me to post; so I'll continue doing so...starting with the next paragraph.  Those who have figured out how to comment are welcome to do so, and I've fixed it so I don't have to review each one before it's accepted by the blog.  (I can still delete offensive ones after the fact.)

There's always a dearth of Celtics news during the offseason.  But it's a good time to think through some of the logic that usually applies to the actions of management and the front office.

Perhaps the most controversial Celtics issue of the summer has been the extent of KG's knee injury and how soon (if ever) he'll be able to return to full-strength.  If one believes the comments of Danny, Doc, and KG himself, it seems that he'll be his same old frisky, intense self when training camp opens.  On the other hand, troubling media reports continue to surface.  The most recent claims that Kevin's surgical procedure didn't simply entail removing bone spurs but involved a partially damaged tendon that had to be reattached to the bone with staples.

It would be silly for me to add to the conjecture about KG's availability, which we'll know about soon enough.  I'm hoping he'll be sufficiently ready to get into game shape gradually during preseason, while Doc can take advantage of reduced minutes for KG to do additional experimentation with some of the myriad player combinations at Doc's disposal.  But I'm more interested in discussing the expectations of many fans that the Celtics should adopt a policy of making timely, frequent, accurate announcements as to the condition of injured players.

As far as I'm concerned, that doesn't really make a lot of sense.  As far as I know, the league mandates clubs to announce (by game time) which players will be activated for the game, and that's it as far as regulations are concerned.  Left to their own devices, why should general managers or coaches help other clubs with their advance planning?  Why should a general manager who feels a pressing need for backup to a seriously injured player give trade leverage to other teams by letting them know the true urgency of the need?  Why should Danny or Doc have speculated negatively this summer about the possible seriousness of KG's injury when (1) their conjectures could have been deceptively alarmist and (2) they could have thrown a monkey wrench into the other players' very healthy desire to report early and to develop a highly enthusiastic outlook?

Trade leverage is an extremely important consideration and is probably underrated by many fans.  For every trade we hear about, there are probably scores of potential trades that have been discussed and rejected.  And at the core of those discussions is an ongoing struggle for the upper hand in trading leverage.  I'm not suggesting that a general manager distort the medical condition of a potential trading chip from the rival general manager, who will presumably discover during the obligatory physical anyway...while valuable time has passed.  But I do believe extent of need is a key factor in establishing trading leverage.  It's one reason why a player does a dramatic disservice to his team by publicly demanding a trade.  He's ceding "pennies on the dollar" leverage advantage to opponents for certain.

I'd also like to write a few words about another common misconception concerning trades.  Message boards are full of trade suggestions, and many of them are extremely unrealistic.  Typical of what I'm referring to is a situation in which someone will dutifully refer to the RealGM Trade Checker and will dream up a "brainstorm" involving dumping his three least-liked Celtics for one highly desirable incoming player.

Here's a good rule of thumb in thinking about dumping players in trades.  If you don't think much of a player, it's very likely that other teams don't think much of him either.  And simply compounding the attempted larceny by adding more "undesirables" to the mix makes the proposition even more preposterous.  Because quantity is seldom a substitute for quality.  And it's rare that a team wants to clutter its precious few roster slots with mediocrity.

Of course, there may be exceptions to this general rule, as in the KG trade.  Minnesota was interested in stocking their roster with promising youth, and the Celtics needed a veteran defensive intimidator.  But, in that trade, both teams parted with considerable value.  Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes alone are two young guys who should have very good NBA careers.

So expectations of getting something for practically nothing are usually unrealistic.  In fact, it sometimes makes sense to risk "over-paying" for the right player.   Some fans initially felt the Celtics did so by trading Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Jeff Green for an aging Ray Allen and his suspect ankles.  But Ray's clutch heroics, steadiness and veteran leadership have proven to be an integral part of a championship team and a perennial contender, while Delonte's very unfortunate dilemmas, alone, underscore the tricky risk/reward nature of trades.

Sam

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Here Comes the Preseason

Okay, we've seen the news reports and interviews. With training camp right around the corner, the majority of the roster has been working out for weeks in Waltham (an excellent sign). KG guarantees a championship. Doc says KG will be ready for training camp. Rondo says he's been working on being a better floor general, although he also says it's a skill that's pretty much learned through game experience. ??? Rondo also maintains that Lester Hudson has looked good in pickup games. Hudson credits Paul Pierce with helping him on the pick-and-roll, and that fact is corroborated by Pierce. Hudson seems to have a knack for expressing a healthy balance between confidence (in his shooting and defense) and need for improvement (in his ballhandling). All-in-all, we've probably witnessed an above-average display of enthusiasm and anticipation for the coming season.

And, if the optimistic health reports on KG are accurate, who can disagree?

• Danny and the owners have basically taken the championship team (yes, a little older, but also with improved chemistry) and made it much better.

• With the addition of one player (Daniels), the fatigue danger to Pierce and Ray should be greatly diminished.

• Whereas Posey defended well at two positions, the combination of Sheed and Daniels (between them) arguably defends well at all five positions.

• The depth represented by 12 veterans may be unprecedented in Celtics history (KG, Pierce, Ray, Perk, Rondo, Sheed, Daniels, Baby, House, Scal, Tony, Williams). And the extent of the potential (or lack of it) of the remaining three young guys (Giddens, Walker and Hudson if he is signed) will probably be clarified this season.

• Each of nine veterans (KG, Pierce, Sheed, Daniels, Baby, House, Scal, Tony and Williams) can be legitimately said to play more than one position. So, in a sense, the likely active 12-player roster consists of the equivalent of 21 players.

• The incredible versatility of this roster will provide Doc with the kinds of matchup advantages that will force other teams to adjust to the Celtics rather than vice versa.

• If Doc will relax his two-unit philosophy in favor of situational substitution, he'll be able to "field" all sorts of special-purpose combinations on demand.

• With the possible exception of PG, the team is well situated to gird against injuries with veteran backups.

• And who knows? Danny could yet pick up a veteran backup PG, meaning that (1) either Walker, Giddens or Hudson won't be on the roster and (2) barring injuries, a veteran will very likely have to be on the inactive list for each game.

So what are the things to watch for during the exhibition season? In my mind, it's very largely about combinations:

• Aside from the starters (pretty much a "given"), which five-man combos will exhibit the most natural chemistry?

• When Sheed's in the game, under what circumstances (and with which combos of teammates) will he fit in better down low and on the perimeter?

• Related to the previous question, how will Sheed and Baby divide the roles when they're the two big men out there?

• If Daniels plays some point forward (as Doc says he will), will that mean Eddie House can function effectively at backup PG?

• Would playing with four veterans such as Sheed, Baby, Daniels and Eddie more narrowly define Tony's role as SG so that he may be able to focus on what he does best and therefore perform better?

• What will the three kids show? My guess is that any of them would need to exhibit a "difference-making" skill to dislodge a veteran from the active roster. For example, what if Tony and Walker emerged as a dynamic duo on the fast break? Would that change-of-pace weapon be sufficient to get them in there with Rondo for a few minutes a game and to place Walker, instead of Scal, on the active roster?

These are some of the things I'll be watching. I'm wondering about you.

Sam

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